By: Robert Craft

TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services

Which teams control their destiny to make the Playoff?

Right now, it feels there are about 20 of them, and it’s making for some great angst and drama.

Everyone from No. 1 Oregon (which is already in at this point) through No. 8 Miami (which would win the ACC) is safely in if they don’t lose another game.

Ditto these teams that will win their conference and an automatic berth if they win out: No. 13 SMU (ACC), No. 14 BYU (Big 12), No. 15 Texas A&M (SEC), No. 16 Colorado  (Big 12) and No. 21 Arizona State (Big 12).

So, that’s 13. But let me address some of the ones I left out.

No. 9 Ole Miss  and No. 10 Georgia , the final two at-large teams, are seemingly close but could get caught up in some weird SEC tiebreaker math.

If nothing else, Texas A&M winning the SEC and supplanting Texas as the highest-ranked SEC team would bump everyone else down a rung. Or either Ole Miss or Georgia makes the title game, loses and then drops too far to remain an at-large team. (This would be painfully dumb, but I wouldn’t rule it out.) But hey, at least No. 7 Alabama has some breathing room in that scenario.

I initially planned to put No. 12 Boise State in the group above but realized No. 19 Army could well pass the Broncos for the Group of 5 berth if the Black Knights beat Notre Dame, Tulane and remain undefeated.

And I don’t think it’s possible both would finish above an 11-2 Big 12 champ. Probably neither will. That’s why I’m comfortable including Arizona State in that pool.

So, it’s 13 that control their destiny and, by my count, 23 that still hold at least a glimmer of hope the 17 I mentioned- plus No. 11 Tennessee,  No. 17 Clemson (can win the ACC), No. 18 a South Carolina (slim at-large hopes), No. 20 Tulane (G5), No. 22 Iowa State (can win the Big 12) and No. 24 UNLV (G5).

Twenty-three teams with a shot with three weeks to go. Last year at this same point, there were eight.

My question is should head-to-head play a factor?

Because head-to-head is not as simple as Team A beat Team B. Was the game close or a blowout? The latter is harder to overlook. Did Team B lose at home or on the road? Losing at home is less excusable.

And most importantly, in the context of their larger seasons, did this result fit with what the teams did the rest of the year, or was it wildly out of character? One game shouldn’t automatically void the other 11.

I was mildly surprised the committee held Texas’ Week 2 road win over Alabama last season so sacrosanct given it happened so early in the season, but it felt it couldn’t include the Tide in the final four without having the Horns one spot above them.

And now this season, you’re seeing it with the way it carefully ordered Alabama-Ole Miss-Georgia. (BYU/SMU, not so much.)

But I can think of one possibility that would be an absolute nightmare for the committee.

Say Notre Dame beats Army this week but loses to USC to finish 10-2. The Irish are out, right?

Except, what if Texas A&M beats Texas to advance to the SEC Championship Game, loses that game on a last-second field goal and finishes 10-3? Greg Sankey will lose his mind if the committee keeps the Aggies out because they played a 13th game but surely they cannot put 10-win A&M in and leave out 10-win Notre Dame that won in College Station, right? It’s the same scenario as Texas-Alabama last year.

Either both would be in or neither would be in.

Buckle up it’s gonna be an exciting last two weeks of college football. Let’s see what happens!