Marlins Swimming Toward October?

tj1By: TJ Hartnett

TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services

The Marlins have never lost a playoff series. Did you know that?

In the now more than two decades of the franchise’s existence, the Florida/Miami Marlins have won every single playoff series they’ve been a part of.

Now, stepping back from that, they’ve only made the playoffs twice, but they’ve got two World Series championships to show for it. It’s a hell of a winning percentage.

The world has been waiting for them to make it back to the postseason to see what will happen with a third showing. 2016, thirteen years after their last playoff appearance and World Series win, might be the year we get to test out the Marlins’ fortunes.

The 2016 Marlins are currently on pace for a record of 84-78. The 2003 team finished the season at 91-71. But, just like the current Marlins, the 2003 had very slim chances at winning the division throughout the entire season, due to the 101-win Atlanta Braves team that took home the NL East title.

Just like the 2003 Marlins, the 2016 team will most likely have to get into the playoffs via the wild card, and the second wild card spot now makes it a little easier.

One reason that both teams got themselves into a hole in the division race is that they both, to varying degrees, got off to slow starts. This year’s team started the season at 5-11, but then went on to win 11 of its next 12 and got back on track.

The 2003 Marlins got off to an even slower start, going 19-29 in their first 48 games and only 40-41 in the first half of the season. The team then picked it up in the second half, going 21-8 in its final 29 games en route to a wild card berth.

Both the 2003 and 2016 Marlins teams were not necessarily led by offense. Both teams have had an offense that was around the league average. The 2003 team averaged 4.64 runs per game while the current Marlins have averaged 4.27 runs through 123 games.

The 2016 team has better batting average and on-base numbers, but the 2003 was better with slugging percentage, home runs and steals (mostly because of the criminally underappreciated Juan Pierre). Considering some “other” factors back in 2003, the offense for each team is about equal.

The 2003 World Series champions were led by their starting rotation. All five of their starters pitched to an ERA below 4.31, with three of those guys having an ERA under 3.60.  This current Miami team also has strong pitching and has had success in the same areas. Their 3.97 staff ERA is good for ninth in baseball and the 112 home runs they have allowed so far are the fewest in the league.

The problem with the 2016 staff is the walks. They have allowed 3.7 walks per nine innings, good for second-worst in the league, a problem that the 2003 staff did not have.  Although the starting pitching may have been better for the team in 2003, this year’s Marlins team does have the better bullpen.

With all of the numbers together, the 2016 Marlins are not that far off from the 2003 World Series Champion Florida Marlins. But, this year’s Marlins team is going to have to go on a nice run in September, just like the 2003 team did, if they want to get to the postseason for the first time in 13 years.

And if they do, well based off of the past…I know who I’d bet on.