Graham Mertz
Gators QB1?
By: Colin Lacy
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
Turmoil has been a consistent descriptor for the Florida Gators the last couple of seasons and the start of 2024 has been no different.
Florida felt a little bit of confidence and optimism entering the season but was quickly squashed with the season-opening loss against rival Miami 41-17.
In that lid-lifting loss, Gator quarterback Graham Mertz took a tough hit in the fourth quarter and was diagnosed with a concussion. True freshman phenom D.J. Lagway took over for Mertz to finish off the Miami game then started and played the majority of the Gators 45-7 victory over FCS Samford.
Now the questions of “who is QB1 for the Gators” have caught fire. So, who are these two and where does the toasted rear’ of Billy Napier go for the season?
Graham Mertz is the experienced sixth year signal caller who transferred into the Florida program after four years at Wisconsin.
In his debut season with the Gators, Mertz was on track with his best statistical season of his career with 20 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions while racking up 264 yards per game on average through the first 11 games of the season before fracturing his collarbone in the week eleven loss to Missouri and missing the finale against Florida State.
The offseason and preseason leading into the 2024 season was filled with optimism around Mertz but the Miami game suggests it may be a bit premature. Mertz, before leaving the game with the concussion in the fourth quarter, went 11-20 passing with only 91 yards through the air. Mertz didn’t record a score while throwing an interception and was sacked three times.
D.J. Lagway was a highly sought-after recruit out of Willis, Texas (just north of Houston) after totaling over 5,500 all-purpose yards and 73 touchdowns as a senior in high school in route to winning the 2023 Gatorade National Player of the Year.
Lagway essentially had his pick of the litter where to take his talents in the collegiate ranks but saw the vision of Napier and the Gators.
In his Gator debut, Lagway connected on 3 of 6 of the passes for 31 yards and added 20 rushing yards and his first career touchdown on the ground in less than a quarter in the Miami matchup.
Lagway followed that up with his first career start for the Gators against Samford (again because of Mertz’ concussion holding him out). Against the FCS’ Bulldogs, Lagway impressed with 456 yards through the air and 3 scores while completing 18 of 25 passes including an 85-yard reception to Eugene Wilson III.
Now the question goes to “what happens now?”
Most are expecting Napier and company to play Graham Mertz as QB1, but many in Gator Nation are wanting to turn the page and see what D.J. Lagway does with the full keys to the program.
Personally, I think (at least for the time being), Mertz has earned the right to get the opportunity to lose his job as QB1.
In his 6-year career, Mertz has amassed over 8,300 career passing yards and 58 touchdowns.
The experience factor plays a huge role in this decision. Mertz should be the guy. That being said, I think it’s only a question of “IF” not “WHEN” D.J. Lagway takes the reigns and runs with it.
Gator Bait
By: Robert Craft
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
Here are my predictions for Florida’s W-L record in 2023, with the % chances for a Gator win in parentheses — according to ESPN matchup predictor..
Aug. 31, at Utah (29.7% chance):
A lot of this depends on Cam Rising. Even if he’s healthy, what will he look like in his first game back from surgery? The Florida defense will have to keep the Gators in the game, and I think they will. But it still looks like a loss. (Utah)
Sept. 9, McNeese State (99% chance):
The Gators get a cupcake game for their home opener after having to wait five weeks for one in 2022. (Florida)
Sept. 16, Tennessee (51.7% chance)
This week-three matchup is the one that could either generate significant momentum or place Gator Nation down in the dumps. The last time the Vols won in The Swamp, most of the players on the field hadn’t been born yet. I’m not buying the Joe Milton hype right now. (Florida)
Sept. 23, Charlotte (96.3% chance)
The second cupcake game of the season. It gets real after this. (Florida)
Sept. 30, at Kentucky (48.4% chance)
The hope for the Gators is that the offensive line won’t commit eight false starts again in Lexington, and Graham Mertz will take care of the ball better than A.R. did last year.
At this point in the season, younger players on the roster will be stepping up and making an impact. (Florida)
Oct. 7, Vanderbilt (90.4% chance)
This won’t be a repeat of 2022. The Gators should never lose to Vanderbilt on the football field, and they’ll correct that in 2023. (Florida)
Oct. 14, at South Carolina (58.9% chance)
The Gamecocks bring back Spencer Rattler, which has them getting more hype than they deserve this offseason. If the Gators want to record a statement road victory against South Carolina, they will need to take control of the football and make the most of their possessions. That starts at the quarterback position with Graham Mertz. (South Carolina)
Oct. 28, Georgia (13.8% chance)
For me, Georgia is a much better team. Coming off back-to-back national championships, Georgia’s defense is going to be scary. Florida doesn’t have the roster to compete with the Bulldogs. (Georgia)
Nov. 4, Arkansas (66.2% chance)
Arkansas is on the rise under Sam Pittman and they continue to upgrade their roster.
This game could go either way and should be a close one til the end, but playing at the Swamp could be the difference maker. The Swamp will be packed with recruits wanting to see the black uniforms, and the Gators cannot bring them out and lose. (Florida)
Nov. 11, at LSU (18.5% chance)
The Gators kept pace in this rivalry game, but Jayden Daniels and the Tigers will be too much to handle in Death Valley. (LSU)
Nov. 18, at Missouri (58.1% chance)
I will say this … I have seen Florida lose this game. Late in the season, likely a noon (11 am local) kickoff. It will be early, cold, and mostly empty in the other Columbia. Sandwiched between LSU and FSU, this has trap written all over it. (Florida)
Nov. 25, FSU (50.3% chance)
Florida State comes into The Swamp as a College Football Playoff contender. This year’s home matchup against FSU is a tossup due to the emotion of the game and Florida being at home.
The Seminoles are the more talented program right now, but that’s not always the deciding factor in a rivalry match. (FSU)
Frankly, the schedule is a bear. Mertz isn’t a great quarterback but the offense isn’t the real problem. It’s the Defense!
If Florida’s Defense doesn’t improve this season, the Gators will struggle to win 6 games and they won’t have a season to be proud of.
