The Closing Act

By: TJ Hartnett

TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services

While the first two moves of the Atlanta Braves’ offseason failed to impress (the re-signing of Tyler Flowers and Nick Markakis), Alex Anthopoulos and company made a bigger splash by signing the best free agent relief pitcher on the market.

Atlanta inked All-Star closer Will Smith to a 3-year, $39 million contract (with a 4th year club option for another $13 million), shoring up what was their most glaring weakness going into the 2019 season and checking off one of the bigger offseason boxes on their list (though far from their only need).

This is a signing that looks good and should pay dividends, even if Brian Snitker keeps Smith’s former teammate from the San Francisco Giants Mark Melancon in the closer role.

Smith’s numbers against lefties are ridiculous. He has allowed a .157 batting average against and an OPS of a meager .395 from southpaws, not to mention an insane 42-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against lefties. That’s 42 strikeouts for every 1 walk that he surrenders.

Really bonkers stuff from Smith. His numbers against righties (.212 average, .709 OPS) are strong as well. He gets strikeouts, with 37% of his outs coming from a K, and he’s managed to keep walks low and balls in the ballpark for his whole career.

The indication that Melancon will retain his role as the team’s closer isn’t much of a surprise, given that Melancon converted all 11 save opportunities after Atlanta acquired him midseason.

He’ll back the guy who’s played for him; but it may not stay that way for long. Smith seems like the more natural choice, given his stuff and his strikeouts, plus the fact that Melancon has one year left on his contract and Smith just signed for three (maybe four). That means the job will be Smith’s eventually anyway. Time will tell how things shake out.

Perhaps, the more interesting (and immediate) consequence to consider of Smith’s signing is what it means for the rest of the Braves’ offseason. $13 is nothing to scoff at, which could mean one of two things: 1) Liberty Media has decided to open their checkbook and Atlanta is ready to spend on talent, or 2) this was the big signing of the offseason for the Braves.

Knowing Liberty Media, the latter does seem likely.

Josh Donaldson is still out there, having predictably rejected the Braves’ qualifying offer of nearly $18 million to play third base for them in 2020.

The market for him will be one to watch. I still feel that everything being relatively equal, Donaldson will return to Atlanta, umbrella in tow.

I don’t foresee him signing with the team sight unseen, but even with a salary discrepancy of, say $10 million (another team offers him 3 years, $80 million vs. a Braves offer of 3 years, $70 million), he’ll be back at the hot corner in Suntrust Park this April.

I also think that Madison Bumgarner is still on the table after the Smith signing. I do wonder, however, if both would be.

Certainly, signing Donaldson to somewhere around $25 million eliminates even the vaguest possibility of a Gerrit Cole joining the Braves. (A long shot regardless – the Braves can’t win a bidding war.)

Madison Bumgarner might be looking at something more akin to $10-15 million per year for 2 or 3 seasons. That’s not unreasonable for the Braves to afford.

The issue then becomes finding a catcher and deciding what to do in the outfield (start the season with Inciarte, Acuna, and a farm hand?).

Questions are infinite, but at the end of the day the Braves took care of a need, and that’s a good start.