SEC Dominance
By: Robert Craft
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
Kirby Smart wrapped up practice Tuesday at The University of Georgia. The College Football Playoff rankings just released, naturally interviewers asked Smart if the expanding field to 12 this year changed his curiosity.
“I could care less,” Smart said. “Because what is a quality win and a quality loss right now; they’ve been known to change their mind before it comes.”
The format may be different and the field may be bigger, but Georgia has experienced this before. Texas did last year. Tennessee did two years ago. Alabama and LSU have plenty of experience with it. At this point, everyone knows the deal by now.
Smart and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey may not love Georgia’s rank at third, behind two Big Ten teams, while the Bulldogs are second in the AP and coaches polls.
There are seven SEC teams in the top 25, by far the most of any conference (in second place: the Big Ten. With four). That’s an important note for a couple of reasons:
With four in the top 12 (Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama) and a few in striking distance (No. 14 Texas A&M, No. 15 LSU, No. 16 Ole Miss), this sets up more SEC teams to make the playoffs in the future.
Second, more SEC teams will have more chances for ranked wins, or their ranked losses might not seem as bad to the rankings.
Georgia bought itself a lot of room with its win at Texas, giving it a second ranked win, and its only loss came at Alabama. It would seem the Bulldogs need only get a split of the next two games at Ole Miss and Tennessee and they would be in. Even if UGA lost both games, they would have an argument.
Texas and Tennessee also have one loss but a little less leeway.
Texas is clearly in if they win out, although losing at Texas A&M in the regular-season finale would make things dicey.
The Longhorns don’t have a win over any team in the Top 25. Vanderbilt, ranked in the AP, didn’t make the CFP rankings.
Tennessee is all set if they win out because an 11-1 record with a win at Georgia is a strong argument.
If The Vols are competitive at Georgia and lose, 10-2 with two road losses but a win against Alabama may be enough to get it done. Of course, the regular-season finale at Vanderbilt isn’t a sure win.
Texas A&M, meanwhile, is not in the field right now — 14th — but the assignment seems straightforward: Win out, including the Texas game, and the Aggies are close enough to feel good about their chances.
Important caveat: winning out is no guarantee; it depends heavily on what happens elsewhere. As Smart pointed out, the committee is known to change their mind.
Alabama at LSU this week: The loser has a third loss, which puts its Playoff hopes to sleep, while the winner is in great shape. But is the loser truly done and the winner truly in?
Alabama would have three losses to ranked teams LSU, Tennessee and Vanderbilt, if it could sneak into the CFP Top 25 with one ranked win (Georgia) and some others that might check off as good.
LSU may need this win more. It has a loss to unranked USC and the other to Texas A&M. Their best win right now is against Ole Miss.
Then there’s Ole Miss, which is almost certainly done if it loses to Georgia this week. But if Ole Miss wins, that would give it something a ranked win and winning out would mean a 10-2 record.
Still, it has a home loss to Kentucky, and other than the Georgia game, there isn’t much impressive on the resume. So, Lane Kiffin’s team would seem at the mercy of the committee and things falling its way elsewhere.
There are so many important games left and too many data points left to draw any grand conclusions. Nobody from the SEC is definitely in yet, and seven teams still have a realistic shot.
That number figures to go down after this weekend. The question is whether it continues going down over the coming weeks or the SEC ends up with a half-dozen candidates for only so many spots.