By: Ron Reagin

TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services

Region 1-7A has five teams this year — Valdosta, Lowndes, Colquitt County, Camden County and Richmond Hill — but the new GHSA Post-Season Ranking Formula is already separating them.

The formula is winning percentage (35%), opponents’ winning percentage (35%), and opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage (30%). Region champions still get a first-round home game. After that, the 1-32 seeds are driven by PSR, not region finish.

Maxwell’s model takes current results and plays out the rest of the season. For Region 1-7A, the projection (current PSR rank → predicted final seed, with Maxwell power rank in parentheses) looks like this:

Valdosta:                    2 → 1 (8)

Lowndes:                    7 → 9 (17)

Richmond Hill:             8 → 27 (23)

Camden County           16→ 17 (20)

Colquitt County:         18 → 5 (13)

That is the clearest snapshot of how the formula is working. Valdosta is projected to finish as the No. 1 seed in Class 7A.

Colquitt, sitting 2-2 and 17th in the live PSR, is projected to climb all the way to a No. 5 seed. Lowndes stays in the field as a No. 9. Camden holds around a mid-teens seed. Richmond Hill, unbeaten right now and ninth in the live PSR, is projected to slide to 27.

Who is benefiting

Valdosta is the early winner. The Wildcats are unbeaten and already carrying the region’s best opponents’ winning percentage. Maxwell has them finishing 10-0, winning the region, and coming out as the top seed in the class.

Colquitt County is the other big winner in the formula. The Packers lost to Thomas County Central and Lee County, two of the strongest teams in Georgia. Those losses hurt the record, but they help the schedule strength. That is why a 2-2 team is projected as a No. 5 seed when the season is over.

Camden is holding its ground. A 3-1 start and a decent Florida mix keep them in the playoff picture as a projected 17-seed.

Who is lacking the competition

Lowndes is projected to fall from a high current PSR spot to a No. 9 seed. Wins over Jenkins, Harris County, Lithonia and Blanche Ely look clean, but they do not move the OWP needle much.

Richmond Hill is the cautionary tale. Unbeaten, tied for eighth in the live PSR, and projected to finish 27th.

Wins over Effingham, Liberty County, Jenkins and Ware County have not built enough opponent winning percentage. Unless region play changes that, the formula will treat them as a bubble team, not a high seed.

Schools that play Non-GHSA opponents get no benefit from OWP or OOWP, and only get 0.9 credit in their own WP.

How the region is predicted to finish

Maxwell’s most likely predicted outcomes:

Valdosta 10-0, region champion, PSR No. 1

Colquitt around 7-3, PSR No. 5

Lowndes around 8-2, PSR No. 9

Camden in the mid-teens

Richmond Hill fighting to stay inside the 32

Region play has not started. When these five start playing each other — Colquitt at Richmond Hill, Valdosta at Colquitt, Camden at Valdosta, Lowndes at Valdosta, Lowndes at Colquitt — both the standings and the formula will move at the same time.

Late season upsets could derail a high PSR for post season. Conversely, region wins are going to be key to maintain or gain spots in the PSR for seeding in the playoffs.

The takeaway

PSRF is doing what it was built to do. It is rewarding who you beat, not just that you won.

Valdosta is ahead because it is winning against teams that win. Colquitt is still in the high-seed conversation because it scheduled TCC and Lee County. Lowndes and Richmond Hill have the records. They still need the remaining games, especially region games, to raise the quality attached to those wins.

Bottom line, stats and projections are entertaining to speculate about, but wins in the region are going to be the final determining factor for PSR in 2026.

In a five-team region, every Friday of region matchups matters twice: once in the standings, and once in the formula that will seed the playoffs. October is going to be entertaining in Region 1-7A.