Ron Reagin
Valdosta Wildcats and Lowndes County Vikings Preview
By: Ron Reagin
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
One unbeaten season ends Friday night. Valdosta (8-0, 2-0 Region 1-7A) visits Lowndes (8-0, 2-0) at 8 p.m. at Martin Stadium in the 45th Winnersville Classic and the 65th meeting of the series.
Valdosta is No. 4 and Lowndes No. 5 in the AJC Class 7A poll. Both teams last came in unbeaten in 2019, when Lowndes won 24-0 at a sold-out Martin Stadium.
A Valdosta win clinches the Region 1-7A title outright, because every team that could catch the Wildcats would have lost to them head to head. A Lowndes win puts the Vikings in front, but they would still have to win at Colquitt County on Nov. 6.
It is strength against strength. Valdosta has scored at least 52 points in all 7 games it has played. Lowndes has allowed 42 points all season, with four shutouts, and nobody has scored more than 15 on the Vikings.
Valdosta Senior quarterback Tripp Perry has completed 86 of 110 passes for 1,336 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception.
Valdosta Senior running back Deron Foster has 1,004 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns.
That’s seven straight 100-yard games for the senior Oregon State commit. Stanford commit Marquis Fennell has 1,632 all-purpose yards.
Lowndes gives up about 190 yards a game, and senior linebacker Marcus Vaughn has 6 sacks and 25 quarterback hurries. But the Vikings have just 2 interceptions, and Perry has thrown 1 all year.
Lowndes runs for 8.1 yards a carry. Vikings Senior Mason Woods has 844 yards and 16 touchdowns, and Kaevone Thomas has 12 touchdowns on 42 touches.
Now quarterback Jayce Johnson is healthy. In just his third game of the season, at Richmond Hill last week, Johnson threw for 112 yards and ran for 127, accounting for 4 touchdowns as Lowndes rallied from a 15-14 halftime deficit to win 36-15.
Valdosta’s defense allows 255 yards a game, a number inflated by the 550 it gave up at Colquitt County. It answered last week, holding Camden County to 127 total yards in a 63-10 win.
Lowndes beat the same Camden team 50-13 on Oct. 9, without Johnson, running for 475 yards and allowing 187.
Then again, this series has a way of ignoring the numbers. Valdosta leads 40-24, a count that includes playoff meetings, which are not Winnersville Classics. Lowndes won five straight from 2017 to 2021.
Last fall, Valdosta beat a 9-0 Lowndes team 23-14 at Bazemore-Hyder Stadium to clinch its first region title since 2016.
Fennell’s somersaulting 8-yard touchdown catch put the Wildcats ahead for good, LaDarrius McIntyre forced an incompletion on a Lowndes fourth-and-goal, and the defense held Woods to 57 yards.
Shelton Felton is 3-2 against Lowndes. Adam Carter, a former Valdosta assistant, is 1-2 against the Wildcats, and his win came at Martin Stadium, 30-20 in 2024. Valdosta’s last win there was 13-6 in 2022. The home team has won every Classic since.
PSR Getting It Right?
By: Ron Reagin
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
You don’t have to look hard online to find PSR projection lists and the arguments that come with them.
I’ve been following several people who run projections every week, and they’ve been extremely close all season.
As more scores go into the GHSA Post Season Ranking (PSR) formula each week, everybody’s model gets better. I even started tracking down scores and running projections myself, just to compare.
What I found cleared it up for me. Don’t miss the forest for the trees. The main complaint about any ranking system has almost always been about a team that got left out of the playoffs in favor of another one.
If the goal is getting the best 32 teams into the GHSA postseason, then the PSR is working damn near perfect. What’s left is seeding and matchups, and that comes down to thousandths of a point.
Part one: The right 32. Projections built separately, ours included, all put the same 32 teams in the Class 7A field this weekend. Not 30 of 32. All 32. The order shifts a little from list to list, but the field doesn’t.
The only real fight is at the cutline, where Paulding County holds the last spot at .49072, just ahead of Dacula at .48207. That’s exactly the kind of call the system is built to make, and so far it’s making it.
Part two: Nailing the order. Once the field is set, seeding is where the thousandths matter. A few things move the order more than anything else.
Schedule. Strength of schedule makes up 65 percent of the formula. A win over an out-of-state team counts as nine-tenths of a win and adds little to it, so every game you play counts in November for seeding.
You can see it in the standings. Valdosta and Newton are both 8-0, and Newton’s winning percentage is actually higher, because one of Valdosta’s wins came against an out-of-state team.
But Valdosta’s opponents have won about 72 percent of their games, compared with about 57 percent for Newton’s. That’s why Valdosta is No. 1 by the widest gap in the top 10.
Brookwood is 7-1 and sits just ahead of 9-0 Carrollton, because Brookwood’s opponents have won about 65 percent of their games and Carrollton’s about 50.
Colquitt County is 5-3 and ranks 10th, ahead of several teams with only one or two losses, because its opponents have won about 70 percent. South Forsyth is 6-2 but only 22nd, because its opponents have won about 41 percent.
Part three: Strength of region. Playing in a tough region lifts everybody’s numbers. Region 1 is the only region in 7A with every one of its teams in the field, all five.
Region 5 has the most in, six of its eight, and Region 7 has five of seven.
Region 4 comes closest to matching Region 1, with everyone in but Rockdale County. At the other end, Region 8 has only Buford.
Part four: Upsets and late-season results. One upset ripples through every team that played the winner and the loser, and every team that played those teams.
Valdosta and Lowndes meet Oct. 30, and that result alone will reshuffle seeds well beyond Region 1.
Part five: The bottom line. So when you see two lists that don’t match, don’t panic. The projections have been close to perfect at the part that matters most, getting the right 32 teams in. After that, seeding may come down to thousandths of a point, and that’s where the debates will focus.
The matchup projections at this point, ours included, are for entertainment and online discussion. Once all the regular season games have been played and entered in the PSR formula, the top 32 teams will settle the rest on the field this year.
GHSA 7A Playoff Projections
By: Ron Reagin
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
Valdosta beat Camden County by 53 points Friday night and its PSR went down.
That’s how the GHSA formula works. What happens on everybody else’s scoreboard counts almost as much as what happens on yours.
Here’s my projection of the Class 7A PSR after Week 10.
It’s based on scores I’ve collected from GHSA and GPB Sports. These numbers are unofficial and subject to change.
A quick refresher: the PSR is 35 percent a team’s winning percentage, 35 percent its opponents’ winning percentage, and 30 percent its opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage.
Valdosta (8-0) stays No. 1 at .77992, down slightly from last week.
When you’re unbeaten, another win barely moves the needle, and the Wildcats’ strength of schedule took a small hit when former opponent KIPP Atlanta lost 13-12 to Holy Innocents. The lead still grew, though. Newton was off this week and stayed No. 2, about .046 back.
Lowndes (8-0) beat Richmond Hill 36-15 but still slid from fourth to fifth.
The Vikings got hurt by their schedule. Three former opponents lost Friday: Jenkins fell 17-0 to Ware County, Harris County lost 31-7 to Griffin, and Camden lost to Valdosta.
That pulled down Lowndes’ strength of schedule just enough for Carrollton to pass them.
Brookwood held third, and Carrollton jumped from sixth to fourth after a 66-27 rout of a Westlake team that came in 6-1. Beating a team with a record that good gave Carrollton’s schedule a big boost.
Camden County (5-4) slipped from 15th to 16th. The loss knocked its winning percentage down, but it didn’t fall further because playing an unbeaten Valdosta team strengthened its schedule and got back most of what the loss cost.
Richmond Hill (5-4) took the biggest hit in the region, falling from 17th to 18th. The loss to Lowndes lowered its winning percentage, and Lowndes’ schedule hasn’t been strong, so it dragged down Richmond Hill’s opponents’ opponents number.
Colquitt County (5-3) was idle and slipped from eighth to ninth without playing. Richmond Hill, a Packers opponent, losing to Lowndes dinged Colquitt’s schedule, and that was enough for Westlake to stay just ahead of them even after its loss to Carrollton.
Elsewhere, North Gwinnett made the biggest jump in the top 10, from 12th to 7th, after beating a 6-1 Peachtree Ridge team 39-18.
Peachtree Ridge fell from 9th to 15th.
North Cobb shows how strange the formula can be: theyy beat winless Wheeler and still dropped from 11th to 14th, because adding an 0-7 team to its schedule hurt more than the win helped.
My projected 7A top 10: 1. Valdosta, 2. Newton, 3. Brookwood, 4. Carrollton, 5. Lowndes, 6. Buford, 7. North Gwinnett, 8. Westlake, 9. Colquitt County, 10. North Paulding.
Next Friday, Valdosta and Lowndes meet in the Winnersville Classic with the Region Title and plenty of PSR on the line.
Valdosta Wildcats Versus Camden County Wildcats Preview
By: Ron Reagin
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
The Camden County Wildcats will bring a lot of Valdosta ties with them to Bazemore-Hyder Stadium on Friday night.
Four members of the Valdosta Wildcats’ 2016 state championship staff is now coaching at Camden: head coach Tucker Pruitt, defensive coordinator Alan Rodemaker, DeMario Jones and Kevin Pych.
Two former Valdosta players are with Camden as well, Phillip Moore, a standout 1,000- yard rusher who graduated in 2011, and 2021 graduate wide receiver Javonte Sherman, coming off a successful career at Middle Tennessee State.
Coach Mike Daily also has ties to Valdosta. They will all be on the visiting sideline when the two sets of Wildcats meet in the Region 1-7A game.
Asked about the connections, Pruitt went down the list and admitted he had not realized how many were on his staff. “It’s been business as usual,” he said. “It shows that the ties in coaching that are built over the years stay with you in your career, whether it be a coach you coached for, a coach on your staff or a player you coached.” Pruitt, who also played college football at Valdosta State, and said he has “a lot of memories in Bazemore-Hyder.”
Rodemaker has been through this before. He was on the Colquitt County staff when the Packers played Valdosta. “To be honest, we are so focused on getting better, week in and week out, that we haven’t talked about it,” Rodemaker said, adding that he is excited to return to Bazemore-Hyder.
Valdosta coach Shelton Felton, in his sixth season, said he has been too busy this week getting his players off “cloud nine” after the big win in Moultrie to think much about the coaching ties. He compared it to Georgia beating Alabama and then losing to Auburn the next week, and said his players, especially his leaders, have responded well so far.
Felton called it “very unique” to have that many coaches with Valdosta ties on one staff, noting that some of them still have family and friends in the stands and in the Wildcat community. “There may be some black and gold Wildcats with mixed emotions,” he joked. He said he is glad to see those guys “still leaning on each other and coaching together” after their time at Valdosta.
Pruitt said he is glad to have the men with Valdosta history, and everyone else on his staff, because they have their hands full getting ready for the ‘Cats.
Rodemaker said it is “going to be a big challenge to slow that offense down,” and the numbers back him up. No. 5 Valdosta (7-0, 1-0) is unbeaten, unbeaten at home and coming off a 52-44 win at Colquitt County, its’ first victory in Moultrie since 2010.
Senior quarterback Tripp Perry, who spent most of three seasons as a backup, had the night of his career there, completing 20 of 25 passes for 383 yards and scoring his first career rushing touchdown.
Deron Foster, an Oregon State commit, has run for 839 yards and 19 touchdowns. Marquis Fennell, a Stanford commit, has 759 rushing yards at 11.5 a carry and 1,419 all-purpose yards, including the 95-yard touchdown run that turned the Colquitt game.
Camden (5-3, 1-1) lost 50-13 at Lowndes before beating Richmond Hill 40-27 at home.
Senior quarterback Xavier Collins has thrown for 1,128 yards and 9 touchdowns.
Sophomore Malakhi Poole has 577 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns.
Senior Sean Green, a receiver and cornerback, has 29 catches for 546 yards and 8 scores, and he took a kickoff back 76 yards against Valdosta last year.
Rodemaker said his defense is getting better every week, a must in a region as tough as Region 1-7A.
The connections will get plenty of attention before kickoff, but every region game carries weight in the standings and the postseason formula, and this one will be settled between the lines.
Felton put it in bigger terms. “Whenever my time ends here, I will want Valdosta to continue the standard that has been here for decades,” he said. “You know, sometimes it feels like it’s Valdosta against everybody!”
Valdosta Wildcat QB Tripp Perry Breaks Out
By: Ron Reagin
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
Tripp Perry waited three seasons for a night like this one. The Valdosta senior quarterback threw for a career-high 383 yards, completing 20 of 25 passes, and ran for his first career touchdown as the Wildcats outlasted Colquitt County 52-44 Friday night at the Hawg Pen in the Region 1-7A opener for Valdosta.
It was Valdosta’s first win in Moultrie since 2010, snapping a seven-game losing streak at Mack Tharpe Stadium and avenging last October’s 18-17 loss.
The Wildcats improved to 7-0 and 1-0 in the region and now lead the all-time series 72-35-4 after the 111th meeting. Colquitt fell to 5-3 overall and 1-1 in region play.
In an era when move-ins reshape rosters every fall, Perry is a reminder of the other way to do it. He stayed.
Before this season he had thrown just 71 passes in 17 games over three years mostly as a backup, for 554 yards and one touchdown. He kept working behind the scenes, and as a senior he has turned the job into his own. Friday’s 383 yards came within 171 of everything he threw for in his first three seasons combined.
Valdosta Coach Shelton Felton made sure the quarterback got his credit. Speaking to the Valdosta Daily Times, he pointed out that Perry has been in the program four years and said the Wildcats would not have won without him.
Valdosta’s offense piled up 703 yards, 27 first downs and a 6-for-9 mark on third down.
Oregon State commit Deron Foster scored the first three touchdowns for a 21-0 lead and finished with 114 yards and four scores.
Stanford commit Marquis Fennell rushed 16 times for 200 yards and caught seven passes for 143 more. He also produced the swing of the night, taking a wildcat direct snap 95 yards for a touchdown one play after Colquitt quarterback Khi Mitchell fumbled at the Valdosta 5. That made it 28-7.
Colquitt kept coming. A field goal and a 3-yard Tucker Saporita touchdown after a muffed onside kick cut the lead to 28-17. Perry answered in the final minute of the half, hitting Fennell on a 50-yard strike and then finding Jamarian Mingo for a 15-yard touchdown and a 35-17 cushion at the break.
The Packers opened the second half with a quick touchdown, recovered another onside kick and scored again to pull within 35-31 with 9:28 left in the third. Perry calmly led an 80-yard drive and finished it himself with a 6-yard keeper, the first rushing touchdown of his career, for a 42-31 lead.
Colquitt answered with a Lavorice Blyther touchdown to make it 42-38 entering the fourth quarter. Foster’s fourth touchdown pushed the lead back to 49-38. Mitchell found Antwan Lockett for his third scoring catch, but the 2 point conversion failed, leaving it 49-44.
Alans Garcia’s field goal capped Valdosta’s longest scoring drive of the season, a 6:55 march that made it 52-44 with 60 seconds to play. Colquitt got one more chance, and junior defensive end Arman Carter, ended it with a strip-sack of Mitchell, recovered by Jordin Foster with 13 seconds left.
Mingo finished with seven catches for 171 yards and a touchdown. Garcia was perfect on seven extra points. Dashun Core, Isaiah Langston and Brennan Lampkin each had a sack.
Mitchell threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns, all to Lockett, and ran for 57 more as the Packers totaled 490 yards.
Perry’s season numbers now read 70 of 92 for 1,033 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception. Those are numbers that Perry has worked his entire career for, which started in 6th grade at Valdosta Middle School.
Valdosta hosts Camden County at 8 p.m. Friday at Bazemore-Hyder Stadium, with Lowndes the following week.
Foster and Fennell will draw the headlines, as they have all season. But on the night Valdosta finally won in Moultrie again, the quarterback who waited his turn was right in the middle of it, helping lead the Wildcats to another victory.
Cats and Packers
By: Ron Reagin
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
Valdosta travels to Mack Tharpe Stadium on Friday for its Region 1-7A opener against Colquitt County. The game is on GPB.
The Wildcats are 6-0. The Packers are 5-2 and already own a region win after beating Richmond Hill 31-14 on the road last week.
Valdosta has played only one game in the last four weeks after a forfeit win over Booker and a scheduled open date.
The Wildcats also spent this week on fall break with no school. They have tried to keep their weekly routine as normal as possible during the open dates, practicing some mornings with meetings and lifts throughout the day.
Still, the biggest unknown is how the players and coaches will respond after the long layoff from the Friday night lights. Most programs are deep into their regular rhythm by October. Valdosta will find out whether the extra rest leaves them sharp or whether the time away shows up early on the road.
The Wildcats have only made one road trip this season, a Week 1 win at Jones County. Moultrie is a difficult place to play, and Valdosta has not won there since 2010. That history adds another layer to a game that historically carries region implications.
Colquitt already has region experience. The Packers led Richmond Hill 17-14 at the half and finished with three interceptions, two of them in the end zone.
Against Richmond Hill, Colquitt completed 13 of 22 passes for 206 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions while rushing for 114 yards.
For the season, Khi Mitchell has thrown for 1,138 yards and 12 touchdowns. Antwan Lockett has 27 catches for 489 yards and six scores.
Colquitt has also played two of the top five teams in Class 6A this year, which has given the Packers a tougher non-region slate than most teams in the region. Their offense has been inconsistent game to game, but the Packers have generated 86.5 tackles for loss and 10 fumble recoveries on defense.
Valdosta’s offense has been efficient through six games. Deron Foster has rushed for 725 yards and 15 touchdowns. Marquis Fennell has added 559 rushing yards, 399 receiving yards, and 14 total touchdowns.
Tripp Perry has completed 74.6 percent of his passes for 650 yards and 7 scores. The Wildcats are averaging well over 400 yards of total offense per game and enter region play as healthy as they have been all season.
Maxwell’s current projections have Valdosta as the No. 1 team in Class 7A with a projected final ranking of No. 1.
Colquitt sits at No. 9 with a projected finish of No. 6.
A win for Valdosta would strengthen its hold on the top spot and keep its path toward a high seed intact. A loss would drop the Wildcats and open the door for other teams to move up.
For Colquitt, a win would improve both its current standing and its projected finish, while a loss would make the climb steeper with tough region games still ahead.
Shelton Felton and Sean Calhoun spent time together on Rush Propst’s staff at Colquitt before both moved into head coaching jobs. They know each other’s tendencies. That shared history rarely decides games, but it means both staffs understand what the other side wants to do.
Valdosta’s recent schedule has been light. Whether the extra rest and altered week leave the Wildcats sharp or a step slow will be one of the early questions on Friday.
Colquitt has already played a competitive region game and comes in with a defense that creates negative plays.
Both teams can move the ball. The difference may come down to which side handles the conditions and atmosphere of the night better, especially with Valdosta making only its second road trip of the year in a place where the Wildcats have not won in a long time.
With the GPB cameras on and both programs in the mix for the Region 1 race, Friday night in Moultrie will give a clearer picture of where each team stands.
October In Region 1-7A
By: Ron Reagin
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
Region play has not started in Region 1-7A. That changes in October.
The five-team region — Valdosta, Lowndes, Colquitt County, Camden County and Richmond Hill — has spent September on non-region slates.
The records look good, but the standings do not mean as much yet. The next five weeks will decide the region title, the first-round home game, and most of the PSR seeds that follow.
The non-region schedules for the majority of Region 1-7A has been managed well by all teams. Colquitt has suffered a couple of early losses, as well as Camden. Luckily for them, Region 1 is an equalizer if they can win in one of the toughest regions in the state.
The October-November gauntlet
Region games come in a tight cluster:
Oct. 9 — Colquitt at Richmond Hill; Lowndes vs. Camden
Oct. 16 — Valdosta at Colquitt, Richmond Hill @Camden
Oct. 23 — Camden at Valdosta; Lowndes at Richmond Hill
Oct. 30 — Lowndes vs. Valdosta (Winnersville Classic); Colquitt at Camden
Nov. 6 — Lowndes at Colquitt; Richmond Hill at Valdosta
That is 10 region games in a five week span spilling over into the first week of November.
Every one of them counts twice: once in the region standings, and once in the PSR formula that will seed the 7A playoffs statewide.
What each team needs:
Valdosta has the best early PSR profile in the region and is projected as a high seed if it takes care of business.
The Wildcats still have to go to Moultrie, host Camden, go to Lowndes for the Winnersville Classic, and close with Richmond Hill. An unbeaten region run would lock up the title and a first-round home game.
Lowndes is 5-0 and has been dominant at home. The Vikings’ non-region wins have not carried much PSR weight. Region wins will.
Hosting Camden, going to Richmond Hill, hosting Valdosta, and finishing at Colquitt is a four-game stretch that will define Adam Carter’s fourth season.
Colquitt has a winning record after losses to Thomas County Central and Lee County.
Those two losses hurt the record and helped the schedule strength. The Packers still have a path to a high seed if they win their share in region play. The home date with Valdosta on Oct. 16 and the finale against Lowndes are the measuring sticks.
Camden needs region wins more than anyone. A decent start and a mid-teens PSR projection leave little margin.
Games at Lowndes, at Valdosta, and at home against Colquitt will decide whether the Wildcats are a playoff team with a decent seed or a team looking in from the outside.
Richmond Hill is off to a tremendous start and still the team the formula has treated the harshest. The early wins have not built much opponent winning percentage.
Hosting Colquitt, hosting Lowndes, and going to Valdosta in the finale is the chance to change that. Those games could flip the PSR picture fast if Richmond Hill can win continue winning in the Region.
Why October matters more this year
The region champion still gets a first-round home game. After that, PSR seeds the field 1 through 32.
A second-place team with a tougher résumé can be seeded higher than a champion from a weaker region. That is why these eight games are not just about first place. They are about who you beat and when you beat them.
Late-season upsets can wipe out a high PSR in a hurry. Region wins, in a tough region, can also climb a team several spots in a single Friday night.
The takeaway
September was about getting ready. October is about the region.
Valdosta and Lowndes enter as the favorites. Colquitt has the schedule profile to stay in the high-seed conversation. Camden and Richmond Hill have to prove it against the teams that will actually show up on the playoff résumé, and more importantly, show up in their PSR.
South Georgia fans are already looking forward to these matchups. This year they also decide the playoff seeds, and that makes October in Region 1 as important as it has been in a long time.
1-7A Rankings
By: Ron Reagin
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
Region 1-7A has five teams this year — Valdosta, Lowndes, Colquitt County, Camden County and Richmond Hill — but the new GHSA Post-Season Ranking Formula is already separating them.
The formula is winning percentage (35%), opponents’ winning percentage (35%), and opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage (30%). Region champions still get a first-round home game. After that, the 1-32 seeds are driven by PSR, not region finish.
Maxwell’s model takes current results and plays out the rest of the season. For Region 1-7A, the projection (current PSR rank → predicted final seed, with Maxwell power rank in parentheses) looks like this:
Valdosta: 2 → 1 (8)
Lowndes: 7 → 9 (17)
Richmond Hill: 8 → 27 (23)
Camden County 16→ 17 (20)
Colquitt County: 18 → 5 (13)
That is the clearest snapshot of how the formula is working. Valdosta is projected to finish as the No. 1 seed in Class 7A.
Colquitt, sitting 2-2 and 17th in the live PSR, is projected to climb all the way to a No. 5 seed. Lowndes stays in the field as a No. 9. Camden holds around a mid-teens seed. Richmond Hill, unbeaten right now and ninth in the live PSR, is projected to slide to 27.
Who is benefiting
Valdosta is the early winner. The Wildcats are unbeaten and already carrying the region’s best opponents’ winning percentage. Maxwell has them finishing 10-0, winning the region, and coming out as the top seed in the class.
Colquitt County is the other big winner in the formula. The Packers lost to Thomas County Central and Lee County, two of the strongest teams in Georgia. Those losses hurt the record, but they help the schedule strength. That is why a 2-2 team is projected as a No. 5 seed when the season is over.
Camden is holding its ground. A 3-1 start and a decent Florida mix keep them in the playoff picture as a projected 17-seed.
Who is lacking the competition
Lowndes is projected to fall from a high current PSR spot to a No. 9 seed. Wins over Jenkins, Harris County, Lithonia and Blanche Ely look clean, but they do not move the OWP needle much.
Richmond Hill is the cautionary tale. Unbeaten, tied for eighth in the live PSR, and projected to finish 27th.
Wins over Effingham, Liberty County, Jenkins and Ware County have not built enough opponent winning percentage. Unless region play changes that, the formula will treat them as a bubble team, not a high seed.
Schools that play Non-GHSA opponents get no benefit from OWP or OOWP, and only get 0.9 credit in their own WP.
How the region is predicted to finish
Maxwell’s most likely predicted outcomes:
Valdosta 10-0, region champion, PSR No. 1
Colquitt around 7-3, PSR No. 5
Lowndes around 8-2, PSR No. 9
Camden in the mid-teens
Richmond Hill fighting to stay inside the 32
Region play has not started. When these five start playing each other — Colquitt at Richmond Hill, Valdosta at Colquitt, Camden at Valdosta, Lowndes at Valdosta, Lowndes at Colquitt — both the standings and the formula will move at the same time.
Late season upsets could derail a high PSR for post season. Conversely, region wins are going to be key to maintain or gain spots in the PSR for seeding in the playoffs.
The takeaway
PSRF is doing what it was built to do. It is rewarding who you beat, not just that you won.
Valdosta is ahead because it is winning against teams that win. Colquitt is still in the high-seed conversation because it scheduled TCC and Lee County. Lowndes and Richmond Hill have the records. They still need the remaining games, especially region games, to raise the quality attached to those wins.
Bottom line, stats and projections are entertaining to speculate about, but wins in the region are going to be the final determining factor for PSR in 2026.
In a five-team region, every Friday of region matchups matters twice: once in the standings, and once in the formula that will seed the playoffs. October is going to be entertaining in Region 1-7A.
Valdosta Wildcats Strong Start
By: Ron Reagin
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
Opening the season on the road is never easy, especially with a young defense and a lightning delay that pushed kickoff all the way to 9:20 p.m. Valdosta handled both challenges Friday night and came away with a solid 52-14 win at Jones County.
The Wildcats treated the game like a business trip. They went on the road, took care of business, and left with a victory despite the late start and the usual early-season social media noise.
The offense looked ready from the start. With most of its key pieces returning, Valdosta rolled up 426 yards of total offense — 251 through the air and 175 on the ground. Marquis Fennell and Deron Foster once again formed one of the most dangerous backfield combinations in the state.
Fennell scored four touchdowns just about every way a running back can. He rushed for the game’s first points, caught touchdown passes from two different quarterbacks, and returned a punt 55 yards for another score. He finished with eight catches for 143 yards and two receiving touchdowns, plus nine carries for 48 yards and a rushing score.
Special teams for the Wildcats was solid as well. Along with Fennell’s punt return touchdown, sophomore kicker Alans Garcia handled the kickoffs and made a 36-yard field goal with plenty of distance to spare. New punter Freddy Poole had two punts and averaged 30 yards per punt, with veteran Troy commit long snapper William Mosley handling all the snaps flawlessly.
Oregon State commit Deron Foster did the lion’s share on the ground, carrying 18 times for 107 yards and a touchdown. Senior center Austin Spray and the experienced offensive line helped create running lanes and gave the quarterbacks time to work.
Speaking of the quarterbacks, Tripp Perry delivered the best game of his career. He completed 9 of 12 passes for 158 yards and two touchdowns while showing the leadership and command he has displayed throughout the offseason.
When sophomore Lamar Thomas got his opportunity, he answered with a sharp 5-of-8 performance for 84 yards and two touchdowns of his own.
Sophomore Quincy Hunt added a hard-running 30 yards on five carries, and senior wideout Jamarian Mingo hauled in five catches for 87 yards, scoring from both quarterbacks.
Before the game, head coach Shelton Felton was asked what he wanted to see from his young defense. His answer was clear: “I want to see a physical, fast and detailed defense. They could make mistakes but make them full speed… new season, want them to have fun and run to the football.”
Outside of a couple of missed fits on run defense that led to long runs, the defense answered the call. Jones County finished with just 14 points and 245 total yards.
After the game, Coach Felton praised the unit for making adjustments at halftime. When asked how he sees them growing, he said, “One play at a time, one week at a time and one game at a time… gotta stay with us. Growing pains. A lot of guys this is their first time playing big-time football.”
It was not a perfect night, but it was a professional one. The Wildcats did what they were supposed to do on the road in Week 1.
Next Friday night they return to the friendly confines of Bazemore-Hyder Stadium for the home opener against Howard.
After a businesslike start on the road, the Cats will look to keep the momentum going in front of the home crowd over this 5 game home stand.
Colquitt County Packers 2026 Preview
By: Ron Reagin
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
The Colquitt County Packers enter the 2026 season coming off a solid 9-3 campaign that included a 4-1 region mark and a second-round playoff appearance.
Under head coach Sean Calhoun, who is entering his fifth season at the helm, the Packers continue to rank among South Georgia’s most consistent programs and one of the toughest outs in the state’s largest classification.
2025 Season Recap: Colquitt finished 9-3 overall and tied for one of the top spots in Region 1-AAAAAA.
The Packers handled most of their schedule with physical play on both sides of the ball and showed they could compete with top competition.
Their three losses came against strong opponents, all of which made deep playoff runs.
Running back Jae Lamar, a Georgia commit, led the way with 1,015 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns in just 10 games.
Quarterback Cohen Lawson threw for over 2,000 yards and 19 touchdowns in his second year as the starter, while wide receiver Antwan Lockett provided a big-play threat with 40 catches for 811 yards and 10 scores.
Key Returners and Leadership The biggest losses are Lamar and Lawson (who has transferred to Lee County). Both will be hard to replace.
However, Lockett is back to stretch the field, and the Packers have depth at the skill positions along with returning offensive linemen who should help maintain continuity up front.
Dual threat QB Khi Mitchell transferred in from Mt. Zion and should contribute early and often.
On defense, several experienced linebackers and secondary players return to keep the physical identity Calhoun has built.
Colquitt usually excels in special teams as well, producing strong field goal kickers, returners and a physical front with blocked punts and field goals every year.
Emerging contributors who saw significant snaps in 2025 will be asked to step into larger roles, including the competition at quarterback.
2026 Schedule Highlights: The Packers open with one of the toughest non-region games in the state, a road trip to defending Class 5A state champion Thomas County Central on August 21.
Home games against Monroe, Cook County, and Lee County follow, along with Florida tests against Lincoln and Rickards.
Region play includes trips to Richmond Hill and Camden County, a home date with Valdosta on October 16, and the season finale at home against Lowndes on November 6.
This is a challenging slate that features multiple quality opponents. Under the new PSRF playoff seeding formula, the strength of schedule should help Colquitt if they take care of business against the tougher teams on their schedule.
Outlook: Colquitt County has the experience, coaching stability, and talent to contend again in Region 1-AAAAAA.
Replacing the production of Lamar and Lawson will be a major focus, but the returning skill players, key transfers and depth give the Packers a chance to remain competitive on offense.
The defense should continue to play with the physical style that has defined the program under Calhoun.
South Georgia fans can look forward to the traditional matchups with Valdosta, Lowndes, and Camden. These games will tell the tale for the Packers’ postseason, similar to the other teams in this stacked region.
The Packers enter 2026 looking to improve on last year’s 9-3 mark and make another deep postseason run.
Mack Tharpe Stadium will be ready for another exciting fall. The Pack is loaded with opportunity.
Online
Radio/Podcasts
