Robert Craft
House Of Horrors
By: Robert Craft
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
Neither team is in the top 10. In fact, only one of them is ranked. There are no Heisman favorites playing. But make no mistake, Saturday’s Florida Gators-Tennessee Vols game at the Swamp is big. Always expect a sellout crowd.
Tennessee looks to win back-to-back games over Florida in the rivalry for the first time since 2003-2004 and to win in The Swamp for the first time since 2003.
The Vols are coming off an exciting 38-33 win over the Gators at Neyland Stadium a season ago, a victory that sparked the 11-win campaign.
Josh Heupel’s bunch looked out of sorts against Austin Peay last week, thus getting back on track and having proper communication is key as this matchup will be the first true road game of the season for the Big Orange.
It’s a massive game for both parties involved. The contest will be the ‘tempo setter’ for the Vols and the first challenge ahead of a grueling SEC schedule.
For the Gators, this is a critical rivalry game with Billy Napier, this is the biggest game in his coaching career. Both squads are trying to find themselves early in the season, but the game slows down for no one.
Florida is eager to make a statement under Napier. They want to show that they’re going to take a step forward in Napier’s second season. Beating Tennessee, especially after losing to the Vols last season, would certainly send a message that Florida is moving in the right direction under Napier.
For Tennessee, the Florida game is the first real obstacle in their quest for a SEC East division title. With Georgia looking like a good bet to run the table until their late November matchup with the Vols, Tennessee knows that a loss to Florida on Saturday in the Swamp will make winning an SEC East title significantly tougher, if not impossible.
Through two games, this typically high flying Tennessee offense—or more specifically the passing game element of that offense—hasn’t been racking up the explosive plays like fans are accustomed to seeing.
Heupel understands that there’s frustration about Tennessee’s performance on Saturday in a game that most expected would be well in hand by halftime.
The Vols are running the ball great at the moment, averaging 6.1 yards per carry on the season. The aforementioned SEC-worst 6.67 yards per passing attempt is holding the offense back.
Tennessee is converting just 32% on third down, which ranks 13th in the SEC. That’s also a concern but the Vols haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of defenses in the first two weeks.
Florida has potential to surprise people this season but could struggle to reach bowl eligibility.
I side more so with the latter. I am not a believer in Graham Mertz and don’t see Florida having a good pass rush.
The receiver’s youth won’t help Mertz, and shaky offensive line play will prevent Florida’s run game from reaching its potential. With that, the Swamp will impact The Vols offense. That should go without saying.
Gainesville is a house of horrors for Tennessee, no question about it. And if there is one must-win game for the Gators in 2023, it’s Tennessee.
With the game being in week three, Florida needs to set the tone for the rest of their season.
Florida 27 Tennessee 24
Loud War Chant
By: Robert Craft
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
On the heels of the Seminoles’ 45-24 drubbing of No. 5 LSU on Sunday night, it’s time for my 3-2-1, where I offer up three observations and one prediction about Florida State football.
Three things I learned.
1 — This team’s chemistry might be even stronger than 2022:
You didn’t have to be a scout to like Florida State’s roster entering the 2023 season.
The Seminoles were bringing back the vast majority of their production from a 10-3 team, and they brought in a slew of talented, experienced transfers to add to the mix.
At wide receiver, tight end, cornerback and on the O and D lines, Florida State landed several of the very best players in the transfer portal. You saw many of them shine Sunday night against LSU — everyone from Keon Coleman, Jaheim Bell and Jeremiah Byers to Braden Fiske, Fentrell Cypress and Gilber Edmond.
Physically, I think most of us expected the Seminoles to be a better football team this fall than last.
While it was only one game, and there undoubtedly will be more difficult moments down the road, there were a ton of great signs of the togetherness and commitment these players have for each other.
From the defense delivering two huge fourth-down stops in the first half, to the offense sticking together until things began to click late in the second quarter.
Jordan Travis displayed remarkable leadership after a couple of costly early mistakes and drops.
We don’t know if it will always be like this. Heck, emotions and circumstances derail college football teams all the time. I thought it was fair to wonder how this team might be affected by lengthy expectations with a changing roster and the complications that come with money.
To the contrary, I think this team might have even more positive energy and leadership than the program did in 2022. And that is saying something.
2 – Second-quarter drive spoke volumes:
As poorly as Florida State’s offense was performing for most of the first two quarters Sunday night, there was a real chance FSU ended in too big of a hole at halftime to climb out from.
They were trailing 14-7 midway through the second quarter. The offense had just finished their last four drives with three punts and an interception. There was another near-interception in there that could have been disastrous — deep in FSU territory.
When the Seminoles got possession at their own 25-yard line with 6:02 remaining in the first half, I felt like they were teetering on disaster.
If the offense didn’t find the end zone on that drive, Florida State likely would have been trailing by two scores at halftime, and LSU would have had a ton of momentum, a world of confidence, and a winning chance.
The second half the Seminoles took control of the game. But those early fourth-down stops — and that big answer by Travis in the second quarter — are what made their win possible.
3 – Player development was on full display:
The transfers will get most of the attention, and rightfully so.
Former Michigan State star Keon Coleman caught three touchdown passes. Former South Carolina star Jaheim Bell scored two touchdowns of his own. Transfers played well in their FSU debut.
But several “program players” — guys who have been at FSU for their entire careers — came through at important moments and showed just how far they have come during their time in Tallahassee. Here are a few who stood out Sunday:
Linebacker DJ Lundy came through with a huge fourth-down sack of LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels to thwart one scoring opportunity, and he was in on another tackle for loss.
Lundy now looks like a completely different player than when he was forced into early action back in 2020 and 2021.
This defense will give Florida State every opportunity to achieve any goal this season, and Jordan Travis & the offense is explosive. I am calling it now FSU 13-0.
Fans, time to buy your playoff tickets.
Gator Kickoff Preview
By: Robert Craft
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
The Florida Gators open their 2023 season Thursday at Utah, the second matchup of their home-and-home series with the back-to-back Pac 12 champions.
UF upset the No.7 Utes last year in The Swamp, 29-26, as Billy Napier became the school’s first coach to defeat a ranked team in his debut.
Here are three key matchups in this year’s game between the Utah offense and Florida’s defense:
New UF defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong is going to bring the house against Cam Rising. One of Armstrong’s trademarks as the Southern Miss DC was getting after the quarterback.
Rising tore his ACL on Jan. 1 in the team’s Rose Bowl loss to Penn State and he didn’t participate in 11-on-11 drills during fall camp. He’s still expected to play and listed him as the starter on its Week 1 depth chart.
The Utes allowed just 15.0 sacks last season, which ranked No. 20 nationally. They return three offensive line starters and a fourth player who made two starts in 2022.
Rising also threw for 216 yards at Florida last season, with tight end Brent Kuithe accounting for almost half of them.
Kuithe suffered a torn ACL last season on Sept. 24 against Arizona State. He was limited in fall camp but should be greenlit for the opener.
The Gators must do a better job defending Kuithe on Thursday, luckily they have a few more coverage options to throw at him this time around.
In addition to Rising, Florida was also torched by Tavion Thomas on the ground. The former Utah running back rushed 115 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries in The Swamp. Not a good look.
It must have been foreshadowing, because The Utes finished with the No. 11 rushing offense in the FBS at 217.6 yards per game, while Florida’s rushing defense ranked 100th nationally.
Utah returns two backs in sophomore Ja ‘Quinden Jackson and junior Micah Bernard, both of whom eclipsed 500 yards rushing last season.
Bernard had 106 carries for 533 yards and four touchdowns, while Jackson rushed 78 times for 531 yards and nine TDs. Jackson has been named Utah’s starting running back in this mean rotation.
The Gators lost four full-time starters from last year’s offensive line and the status of redshirt junior center Kingsley Eguakun is in question.
They may return with all new guys if Eguakun isn’t cleared. Regardless of who starts , it will be key for the Gator Offensive Line to handle the road environment well and assist redshirt junior quarterback Graham Mertz in getting settled.
The Gators boast one of the best tailback tandems, junior Montrell Johnson Jr and sophomore Trevor Etienne aka TNT.
They will be featured much more in this year’s Utah matchup. It’s going to take a heavy dose of Etienne and Johnson for Florida to win this game.
That will be easier said than done against the Utes and their No. 18 national rank in rushing defense. They allowed only 111.23 yards per game.
Utah ranked No. 1 in the Pac 12 and tied for eighth nationally in sacks last season, registering 41.0 total sacks to average 2.39 per game.
The Gators didn’t give up any sacks last year’s game. If Mertz can handle Utah’s pressures and the O-line protects him, the Gators have a great shot. But this year I don’t think a shot will be enough to take this one home.
Utah 31 Florida 20
Gator Bait
By: Robert Craft
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
Here are my predictions for Florida’s W-L record in 2023, with the % chances for a Gator win in parentheses — according to ESPN matchup predictor..
Aug. 31, at Utah (29.7% chance):
A lot of this depends on Cam Rising. Even if he’s healthy, what will he look like in his first game back from surgery? The Florida defense will have to keep the Gators in the game, and I think they will. But it still looks like a loss. (Utah)
Sept. 9, McNeese State (99% chance):
The Gators get a cupcake game for their home opener after having to wait five weeks for one in 2022. (Florida)
Sept. 16, Tennessee (51.7% chance)
This week-three matchup is the one that could either generate significant momentum or place Gator Nation down in the dumps. The last time the Vols won in The Swamp, most of the players on the field hadn’t been born yet. I’m not buying the Joe Milton hype right now. (Florida)
Sept. 23, Charlotte (96.3% chance)
The second cupcake game of the season. It gets real after this. (Florida)
Sept. 30, at Kentucky (48.4% chance)
The hope for the Gators is that the offensive line won’t commit eight false starts again in Lexington, and Graham Mertz will take care of the ball better than A.R. did last year.
At this point in the season, younger players on the roster will be stepping up and making an impact. (Florida)
Oct. 7, Vanderbilt (90.4% chance)
This won’t be a repeat of 2022. The Gators should never lose to Vanderbilt on the football field, and they’ll correct that in 2023. (Florida)
Oct. 14, at South Carolina (58.9% chance)
The Gamecocks bring back Spencer Rattler, which has them getting more hype than they deserve this offseason. If the Gators want to record a statement road victory against South Carolina, they will need to take control of the football and make the most of their possessions. That starts at the quarterback position with Graham Mertz. (South Carolina)
Oct. 28, Georgia (13.8% chance)
For me, Georgia is a much better team. Coming off back-to-back national championships, Georgia’s defense is going to be scary. Florida doesn’t have the roster to compete with the Bulldogs. (Georgia)
Nov. 4, Arkansas (66.2% chance)
Arkansas is on the rise under Sam Pittman and they continue to upgrade their roster.
This game could go either way and should be a close one til the end, but playing at the Swamp could be the difference maker. The Swamp will be packed with recruits wanting to see the black uniforms, and the Gators cannot bring them out and lose. (Florida)
Nov. 11, at LSU (18.5% chance)
The Gators kept pace in this rivalry game, but Jayden Daniels and the Tigers will be too much to handle in Death Valley. (LSU)
Nov. 18, at Missouri (58.1% chance)
I will say this … I have seen Florida lose this game. Late in the season, likely a noon (11 am local) kickoff. It will be early, cold, and mostly empty in the other Columbia. Sandwiched between LSU and FSU, this has trap written all over it. (Florida)
Nov. 25, FSU (50.3% chance)
Florida State comes into The Swamp as a College Football Playoff contender. This year’s home matchup against FSU is a tossup due to the emotion of the game and Florida being at home.
The Seminoles are the more talented program right now, but that’s not always the deciding factor in a rivalry match. (FSU)
Frankly, the schedule is a bear. Mertz isn’t a great quarterback but the offense isn’t the real problem. It’s the Defense!
If Florida’s Defense doesn’t improve this season, the Gators will struggle to win 6 games and they won’t have a season to be proud of.
UCF Knights 2023 Preview
By: Robert Craft
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
“When you look at your schedule, there’s no off weeks,” UCF head coach Gus Malzahn said. “You’ve got to bring your A-game every week. That’s really what stands out to me coming in as a new kid on the block.”
Without a doubt, 2023 boasts the toughest schedule in UCF football’s history.
It’s exactly what the Knights want: the chance to play before sold-out crowds on tradition-rich Big 12 campuses.
With the five Big 12 road games and one at Boise State in non-conference play, it’s still a more manageable schedule than any other BIG 12 team.
Let me be clear- it’s not all going to be easy. Those road dates at Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech will keep UCF from cranking out a massive debut season.
Do the Knights have the skill level, depth, and toughness to compete in their new conference?
Head Coach Gus Malzahn has been preparing for UCF’s first season in the Power 5 for two years, with the goal of building a roster that’s able to match up with the Big 12.
Malzahn and his staff dove into the transfer portal, adding 18 new transfers to the 2023 roster. A handful of hot-handed new players come with Power 5 experience and clout.
John Rhys Plumlee (JRP) returns for year two at UCF as one of Malzahn’s most trusted leaders, entrenched as the starting quarterback.
JRP returns with a wealth of talent around him, from receivers Javon Baker, Kobe Hudson and Trent Whittemore to tight end Alec Holler and running backs RJ Harvey, Demarkcus Bowman, and Johnny Richardson.
There’s a new playcaller at UCF. Malzahn brought in offensive coordinator Darin Hinshaw this offseason.
Before Malzahn arrived at UCF, the Knights boasted one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The scoring average dropped from 40+ points per game in 2020 to around 32 per game in 2021 and 2022. Big 12 dogfights will happen this season. UCF must keep up.
The Knights defense is okay at best. They need to be a more disruptive force to win games this year.
The run defense got ripped up late last season, the pass defense had issues during the middle of the season. There are enough good veterans back to be better in 2023. Against real competitors, will UCF only be able to perform on one side of the ball?
For the fans: There will be an upset here and there, but there also isn’t a sure win outside of Kent State and Villanova. Are you worried?
Don’t underestimate anything this team and program can do, but figure on at least two losses between the road trips to Boise State, Oklahoma, and Kansas State, and at best the away games against Cincinnati, Kansas, and Texas Tech are 50/50.
With a manageable schedule, will UCF manage a successful season?
My concern is for quarterback health. Rhys Plumlee doesn’t shy away from contact and is regularly on the move behind an offensive line that may be worse than last year’s. Taking hits piles up, and he’s already missed games in his career. If Rhys Plumlee misses games in 2023, UCF is in serious trouble.
UCF could win 8 or 9 game with a healthy Plumlee but if he’s injured or playing hurt 6 or 7 games is the ceiling.
Rough Winds
By: Robert Craft
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
Miami should be better than they have shown- this program has big talent that is worth getting excited about.
With that being said, The Hurricanes took a big step backwards during Mario Cristobal’s first season as head coach. Does this team have what it takes to change their downward trajectory?
On one hand, Cristobal underachieved at Oregon in addition to Miami. I have no confidence in his ability to turn around a program that has managed one double-digit win since 2004.
The Hurricanes bring in new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a flurry of transfers, but is it enough? A lot will hinge on Tyler Van Dyke reverting to 2021 form following his 2022 injury-riddled season but, even then…
Shannon Dawson, unlike Miami’s previous offensive coordinator, doesn’t believe the Hurricanes have a talent problem. Of course, Dawson, a former assistant to Hal Mumme and Dana Holgerson, had more talent to work with than Josh Gattis did. Sounds like Dawson’s speaking from experience.
Coach Cristobal beefed up the Canes offensive line with two huge transfers and two five-star offensive tackle recruits. He added much needed depth at running back, wide receiver and tight end through the portal and incoming freshman class. I mean, how hard is it to sell Miami to a high school senior?
Dawson said he’ll be on the field to call plays so he can look his quarterback in the eye.
The position belongs to Van Dyke, with Brown set as backup after Jake Garcia transferred to Missouri. Freshman Emory Williams, a former Elite 11 Finalist, looked good in the spring game, but the feeling is Brown and his break neck speed is on pace to replace Van Dyke.
Last year, Miami’s season spiraled when Van Dyke sprained the AC joint in his throwing shoulder in a home loss to Duke.
Miami’s defense last season finished 10th in the ACC in points allowed per game (26.8), 11th in yards allowed per rush (4.0) and next-to-last in passing efficiency defense, allowing a league-worst 8.3 yards per attempt. The Hurricanes also finished 98th nationally in third-down defense (42 percent). Isn’t there a saying about defense and championships? What’s not clicking on this side of the ball?
Lance Guidry (new defensive coordinator) isn’t the type of coordinator who believes you need to dive deep into your bench for help. His philosophy is to play his best players — a lot.
Let’s face it, this is a program that’s wallowed in disappointment for a while now. Miami has won 10 games once in the last 19 seasons, a once unfathomable statistic for a program that had won 10 or more games in nine of 10 seasons from 1985-94. It feels their teams always have potential, but never enough to break the downward trend.
Then there’s the schedule. Miami’s already been listed by DraftKings as a 6-5-point underdog at home vs. Texas A&M, gives up 10 points at Clemson and is a double-digit underdog at FSU as well, plus the Canes are likely going to be underdogs at North Carolina. It’s not easy being an elite football program without an elite football team.
With those considered probable losses, there also will be matchups against pretty good NC State and Louisville teams. Those could go either way.
Miami was atrocious as a unit on both sides of the ball, especially when you look at their talent. Sure, that talent raises the floor, but last year was such a disaster that it’s hard to project them getting eight wins.
ACC All Gone?
By: Robert Craft
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
The SEC and Big Ten (right now) don’t want to expand and steal someone from the ACC or Pac-12, both commissioners Greg Sankey and Tony Petitti have stated that publicly.
The potential implosion of the ACC or Pac-12 might change that. If the Pac-12 collapses or big names like North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson and the like find a way out of the ACC Grant of Rights, the Big Ten and SEC would be concerned about the other scooping up another big market name, and that changes the dynamic.
Sankey has maintained that the SEC only added Texas/Oklahoma because the schools approached the conference and SEC would have been foolish to pass. (And yes, Notre Dame is the only obvious TV additive right now if you’re the SEC or Big Ten, sorry).
If I’m the ACC, increasing my value is top priority, therefore I wouldn’t fall far behind the Big Ten and the SEC, and keep it that way until at least the end of the decade. Smart conferences will already find new revenue streams in a new and ever-evolving market.
Would a smart conference stay in contact with the Pac-12? Would some sort of scheduling alliance or partnership be available? An eye on the Pac-12; if anyone follows Colorado out the door, it could lead to total collapse.
Already, Florida State, Clemson and others have made it clear that they believe they deserve more (money). Do they see themselves splitting the pie by another four slices? Is it evenly shared? Probably not. Could you do a tiered revenue split and add a western wing? I know things are never as simple as they sound on paper, but I’d explore any option to preserve the brightest future for the program.
Of course, there is always the possibility that someone challenges the ACC’s grant of rights and tries to exit the league. Florida State has a virtual board of trustees meeting soon.
The Seminoles would have to give notice of their withdrawal from the ACC by Aug. 15 in order to compete in a new league by fall 2024 (where would they go? How much is the exit fee?).
If the ACC breaks open, we’ll have a different conversation. The ACC could keep its current membership and become an aggressor in the media profit landscape if 1) they want a fight; and 2) they don’t open up an escape for FSU or Clemson or anyone to get out of the grant of rights.
The ACC corner of realignment is the most intriguing off-field action. The more I watch, the more questions surface. The result of this conflict will set the tone and trajectory for the future of a historically competitive conference.
Walking the Plank
By: Robert Craft
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
There was no way for the Bucs to find another quarterback who could command the offense the way Brady did. So, they chose to give the gifted but unsuccessful Baker Mayfield a chance and allow room for the development of second-year passer Kyle Trask.
The Bucs will be dependent on much more than whoever is throwing the ball. They will need solid coaching, an improved running game, dependable receivers, and a better defense. It will take many to replace the greatest in the history of the game.
I feel like the Bucs, without Tom Brady, have fallen off the face of the earth. Has there ever been a team that went from winning a Super Bowl two short years ago to fighting for relevance within its own division this fast? (OK, let’s leave the Rams out of this.)
Let’s start with the reality that Tampa was somewhat limited by salary cap issues they knew would come due (such as $35 million in the wake of Tom Brady’s retirement). Releasing running back Leonard Fournette ($5 million) and several others totaling $75 million in dead money … yikes. Nothing like biting the bullet for 2023- and Tampa Bay has lead teeth.
The Bucs defense is easiest to trust, and they will have to sustain dominance to give their tender offense the chance to score. Overall, they ranked in the top half of the league in most defensive stats last season, being top 10 in sacks and third down stops.
Devin White’s performance has tailed off a bit since his All-Pro season in 2020, nevertheless he is a supremely gifted linebacker and at 25 he probably has not yet played his best ball.
White should be more motivated than ever. He reportedly requested a trade in the offseason because he wants his contract reworked.
The Bucs exercised the option year of his rookie contract and he will be a free agent after this season, barring an extension or tag.
White knows the cost of middle linebackers has gone up in the last year with Roquan Smith, Fred Warner, and Tremaine Edmunds signing new deals. White and the defense need to play at an extremely high level for the Bucs to have anywhere close to a successful season.
I like GM Jason Licht’s philosophy of drafting BIG with his top three picks this year — two front-seven players on defense and an offensive tackle. Add free-agent acquisition Greg Gaines from the Rams at defensive tackle, and this group has gotten a nice makeover on a limited budget.
Also, it’s year 2 under head coach Todd Bowles, and roles should be defined more clearly after the awkward departure of Bruce Arians last offseason.
On offense, I struggle with Baker Mayfield. He is on his fourth team since being the first pick in the 2018 draft. I have less faith in Kyle Trask.
The Bucs’ inexperience at running back and lack of depth in the perimeter leave me with more questions than answers for this offense.
Today, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt as the division winner from 2022, even if it was with an 8-9 record.
At least they have that Super Bowl trophy to shine up if all else fails. If the future’s looking bad, why not live in the past Tampa Bay?
Moving On Up
By: Robert Craft
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
For a team coming off a playoff win in 2023, Jacksonville’s handling of prosperity might be an issue. This season, expect the Jaguars to be in hunting mode.
Being a hunter is a mindset that shapes messaging within a team’s development and morale. Finishing last season in the top 10 in points per game and third down conversion is hefty proof of promise.
In addition, their franchise quarterback has shown serious advancement in his playmaking ability; a good QB1 should make most folks rest easy in Duval County, considering what they’ve been through the last decade. Their competitive fire should have them targeting the gap between them and the AFC elite – this year that target is realistic for Jacksonville.
The Jags defense has ‘more hard to block’ players than any other team in the league. General Manager Trent Baalke has shown an impressive management style by adopting the one simple philosophy that analytic teams despise: drafting the best player available when it’s time to select.
The Jags were known for being driven by numbers and analytics when team building in the past. This season’s build is proof that old-fashioned eyeball evaluation (football sense, some call), can pair successfully with the objective statistical approach that Jags owner Shad Khan instituted upon acquiring the team.
Jacksonville has multiple pass rushers, but outside linebacker Josh Allen and defensive lineman Travon Walker are elite.
At the inside linebacker spots, they have athletic ability that most teams only dream about, with under-the-radar Foyesade Oluokun and 2022 first-round pick Devin Lloyd. Both fly around at a frantic pace, but once the game slows down for them, they will rival 49ers Pro Bowler Fred Warner.
My worry is that the results Jacksonville posted in 2022 are much less than the individual parts are capable of. They do lack some cover skills in the secondary as evidenced by their ranking of 29th in the league in getting off the field on third downs, and their 35 sacks as a team, which tied for 25th most, is mind-boggling.
These are unacceptable results for a team that blitzed on a division-high 25 percent of snaps.
This defense needs to come together in its second year under coordinator Mike Caldwell. The rise of the Jags to a level needed to compete with the Bills, Bengals and Chiefs is predicated on getting more out of its talented crew on defense.
Oh yeah, and if I had a couple of extra bucks, I might just throw it down for giggles on Walker as the AFC Defensive Player of the Year. He’s that good.
With the four-game suspension Cam Robinson for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing substances, the Jaguars must find way to protect their franchise quarterback.
This team will go as far as Trevor Lawrence can take them — and there’s potential for that to be pretty far — but it’s asking a lot of him to outduel some of the AFC’s premier quarterbacks if the defense doesn’t generate enough pressure.
South Beach Swag
By: Robert Craft
TheSouthernSportsEdition.com news services
The decision-makers in Miami must be after my heart.
They’re building an offense that can score from anywhere on the field with big-play ability and game-changing speed that is both fun and exciting.
It got even more explosive with this year’s draft addition of Devon Achane, their new third-string running back.
The problem is the Dolphins ran the ball less than every team in the NFL last year except for one (the Buccaneers). Teams who dominate run the ball well.
For Miami, this standing has to change. Mike McDaniel came to Miami with a reputation of being a run game specialist; he needs to put that into action.
The Dolphins also ranked in the bottom third offensively on third-down conversions in a league that is all about matchups and third downs.
A healthy QB1 should help the conversion rate improve, but that’s a big ask with Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history. What would make me sleep easier as a Dolphin decision-maker is the addition of Mike White as QB2.
I am a believer in White’s skill and mindset. This is a big upgrade over Teddy Bridgewater. In all likelihood it’s not a question of whether he will play, but when?
On the other side of the ball the defense has undergone another serious facelift. Playmaking but undersized David Long was signed from the Titans to play inside linebacker, and salary cap-heavy defensive back Jalen Ramsey was added for a discount from the rebuilding Rams.
The Fins’ blitz rate was third most in the league in 2022, and they played some form of man coverage 39 percent of the time, second most in the league.
They are taking on much risk for the results they received: 24th in points allowed per game, 24th in stopping opponents on third downs and 28th in QB rating allowed (95.3).
Combine these bottom-feeding numbers with a turnover margin of minus -7, and the Dolphins were lucky to get in the playoffs last year. They gave up 113 more points than the Bills for the season. If that doesn’t improve, they are going nowhere.
A large concern across the board is the depth and quality of the offensive line protecting Tua Tagovailoa. An O-line that can’t open up running lanes remains a concern for any pro team.
The Miami Dolphins have a Super Bowl-caliber roster with health at quarterback and a more potent rushing attack, so improved play from this new unit is paramount.
Isaiah Wynn was a smart signing; he can fill in capably if/when Terron Armstead misses time again while also competing with Liam Eichenberg to start at left guard.
The Dolphins need right tackle Austin Jackson to take a step forward this season and consistently protect Tagovailoa’s blindside. If he does that, Armstead stays healthy for a majority of the year and the low-cost additions of Wynn, Dan Feeney and Cedric Ogbuehi bolster the depth to withstand injuries, this team is capable of winning the AFC East and making serious noise in the playoffs.
With only four picks in this past April’s draft, the message is clear — the Dolphins are built for “right now.” Why not add free agent Dalvin Cook?
There are still open ends to be excited about as we enter the season. This is a giant year for team builders in South Beach.
